China warns Australia on world pact

A KEY Chinese adviser believes the world will forge a new climate change pact at
Copenhagen in part because China is recognising it can lead the world on clean technology.

But Jiang Kejun, who leads a climate change modelling team affiliated with the National
Development and Reform Commission, has some advice for Australia's Climate Change
Minister Penny Wong, who was due to fly into Beijing overnight.

''Our research has shown that latecomers are losers,'' Professor Jiang told The Age
yesterday. ''It is impossible for new technology to come from countries that have low carbon-
reduction targets.

''I hope Australia can provide a very positive signal with ambitious targets. It's not difficult for
Australia, even though they use a lot of coal, because the economy is in very good shape
and they have a lot of renewable energy sources.''

Ms Wong is due tomorrow to meet China's key climate change policy maker, NDRC vice
chairman Xie Zhenhua.

Earlier this year, Chinese officials were dismissive of Australia's climate change
commitments but they responded positively to Ms Wong's recent proposal to allow
developing countries to register non-binding international commitments in a schedule
annexed to a new climate change pact.

China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases; its emissions are still rapidly
growing and it has not committed to any firm reduction targets.

Chinese officials have been publicly scathing of developed countries having ''sabotaged'' the
Kyoto Protocol.

But Professor Jiang - an influential adviser but not an official - said new commitments by
President Hu Jintao and also the European Union, Japan and the US have led him to believe
''there will be an agreement at Copenhagen'' in December.

He said Chinese policy making is moving quickly, partly in response to a view that it is
economically efficient to do so.

Last month his team at the NDRC's Energy Research Institute released a scenario showing
that Chinese emissions could peak in 2030.

But until now he has not publicly disclosed the key findings of his research: that if China
continues its aggressive uptake of new technology, sharp emissions cuts will be affordable.

He told The Age that energy costs will fall as a proportion of household income even if
electricity prices double by 2030, because Chinese incomes are rising so fast.

''By 2030 we assume Chinese energy efficiency will be the best in the world,'' he said. ''The
good news is that high-efficiency [technologies] are getting cheaper and are already subject
to strong market competition and the Government has already taken strong administrative
measures to get industry to use that technology.''

The 2009 Hurun Rich List, released yesterday, underscored his point: Wang Chuanfu,
founder of car maker BYD, producer of China's first plug-in electric car, is China's richest
man, worth $US5.1 billion ($A5.6 billion).